Taking a break

I have decided to take a break from blogging for an indeterminate amount of time. Lately, I haven't been posting much. I find I don't have the time, with all the extra curricular activities I've become involved in lately, to pay proper attention to my blog and the postings.

I've enjoyed blogging and hopefully will get back to it one day soon. Until then I will continue to read and post on others blogs.

#roft That’s not a crime to call up al Qaeda, is it?

CNN, which used to be the #1 24hr cable news channel in the US has fallen to 4th place. Behind Fox News (#1), MSNBC (#2), and Headline News (#3). And it just so happens that HLN is owned by the same company, TimeWarner, as CNN. And CNN's plus HLN's ratings together are only 2/3 of Fox's. So TimeWarner can't beat Fox News in a 2 to 1 battle.

So how did CNN go from #1 to #4? Well the answer to that is simple. The average American is more and more being put off by CNN's continuing slide to the left. Perhaps this is even why Lou Dobbs has decided to leave. He's had enough?

It isn't my opinion that CNN has become a leftist propaganda machine. Their broadcasts and anchors speak for themselves. A prime example of this is Chris Mathews. This guy has drank more Kool-Aid than the inhabitants of Jonestown.

“See – we have a problem,” Matthews said. “How do we know when someone like Hasan is going to make his move and do we know he’s an Islamist until he’s made his move? He makes a phone call or whatever, according to Reuters right now. Apparently he tried to contact al Qaeda. Is that the point at which you say, ‘This guy is dangerous?’ That’s not a crime to call up al Qaeda, is it? Is it? I mean, where do you stop the guy?”



Chris do you really have to ask whether or not it's time to stop the guy once he's called al Qaeda? Huh? Do ya?

#roft Gathering of Danielle Smith supporters

So tomorrow is the big day. The leader of the Wildrose Alliance will be selected. If you're a supporter of Danielle Smith, and can't make it up to the big event in Edmonton, we will be gathering at the Boston Pizza at 388 Country Hills Blvd NW starting at 4pm. Hope to see you there.

#roft Michael Ignatieff admits to submitting a C- term paper

In the face of sub-Dion polling numbers Michael Ignatieff has made a promise to Canadians. "I promise to do better." Think about that for a moment. In terms the Prof can understand, Michael Ignatieff has turned in a C- term paper. Not only did he turn in a C- term paper, but he knew he turned in a C- paper instead of an A+ paper.

For a university student this might be fine. You might be taking a course that you really don't care if you get an A+ or a C-, as long as you pass the course. But Michael Ignatieff isn't in university (right now anyway... that may chang soon enough), he wants to be the Prime Minister of Canada. Don't you think that someone who wants to be PM should be already striving for A+ work? Michael thought he'd submit a C- term paper full of bullshit and fool his prof (the Canadian voter) into giving him an undeserved A+. The only problem is that Iggy's prof is far smarter than he thought and saw right through his bullshit and recognized the C- effort for what it was.

But hey, Iffy is promising to do better from now on. Perhaps he'll kick it up to a C+ effort? I mean why do A+ work when the college recruiters promised him A+ grades if he just showed up to class?

#roft Does Bob Rae control the Liberal Senators?

Bill C-25 or "The Truth in Sentencing Act" has gone through the House of Commons, passed 3rd reading, and has moved on to the Senate. This is the legislation that will remove the "2 for 1" time credit that convicted criminals receive for their time in remand awaiting trial. I don't think I'm out of line saying most Canadians would support the removing of the 2 for 1 time served credit.

For his part, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has supported this bill and had the Liberals support it during it's passage through the House of Commons. Now that the bill is before the Senate and the Liberal Senators are amending it to put in a 1.5 for 1 credit for time served. The Liberal Senators are amending it against the Liberal leader's wishes.

Dominic LeBlanc has this to say on it:

"I continue to believe that the bill should be supported unamended and that was Mr.Ignatieff's position every time it was voted in the House of Commons."

The funny bit about these Liberal Senators is that some of them supported Bob Rae's leadership bid. And Bob Rae himself has not spoken out to criticize this move by the Senators. Is this Bob Rae using the Senate to undermine an already weak Ignatieff?

#roft Greenshift redux

During his speech in Montreal Iggy says "Stephane was right" (approx 1:30 mark) then goes on to talk about the "Green way" (approx 2:40 mark).

So today Iggy says Dion was right. But back in March Iggy said Dion was wrong. Which is it?

Like the housecleaning that follows a divorce, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has been making a clean break from the troubled era – and policies – of predecessor Stéphane Dion.

Hey Iggy, if you're back on the Dion train you may want to learn a lesson or two from the Greenshift copyright fiasco. Don't call your plan the "Green way." There's already a Canadian company that markets Greenway products. That's a freebie for you Iggy.

#roft Liberal unity

This is how Liberals kiss and make-up. I'm glad I'm not a Liberal.

Friday:

"I think it's an opportunity to say that we are a great party," Coderre said

To make amends for the comments he made during his resignation, Coderre also spent time promoting a meeting of Liberals in Quebec City this weekend through his Facebook page and made phone calls.

Sunday:

When asked about a spat that led to Coderre leaving his job as the Liberals' Quebec lieutenant, Ignatieff told reporters that loyalty has historically been a strong suit of the federal Liberal Party.

sked about Coderre's no-show, Ignatieff responded: "What Mr. Coderre does is his business. He took actions earlier this week that have consequences. And he's living those consequences. Thank you."

#roft Liberal desperation

A quick jaunt over to WK's blog (sorry for the link all) shows just how desperate the Liberals are to change the channel in the face of their sinking fortunes. Ignatieff, the supposed saviour of the Liberal Party of Canada, was installed as leader to replace the hapless Dion. But the Count has been unable to hold the LPC's head above the low water mark set by Dion.

So what do the Liberals do? The party that brought us Adscam tries to invent a Conservative Adscam. The party that got caught in copyright infringement over the Greenshift are trying to claim that the new Olympic logo on the official clothing being sold by the HBC was somehow a result of the CPC pushing their own copyrighted logo onto the COC and the HBC. The party that brought us this buffonish performance by a PM is trying to spin this triumph by PM Stephen Harper into something negative.

The stench of the Liberal desperation is so bad, that the more they try to run from it the stinkier they get.

#roft Roadmap to a Conservative Majority

I was having a phone chat with a friend today about the current political situation in Canada and whether or not the Conservative Party could indeed form a majority. Many pundits say a majority can't be won without wining big in Quebec and there just aren't enough seats in the rest of Canada up for grabs for any party to gain a majority. Both of us thought it was possible to win a majority, but neither of us could definitively answer how. So I decided to look at the Elections Canada data for the last couple of elections. But I did not factor in past by-elections as the voting motivators are often quite different from a general election. What I discovered is that a majority is definitely possible if an election were to be called in the near future based on current polling trends.

In any election any given party is going to hold seats, lose seats, and win new seats. So in order for the Conservatives to get a majority they not only need to pick up the 12 seats they were shy this most recent election, but also pick up other new seats to make up for some seats they will inevitably lose.

By looking at the election data I have found 16 seats that the Conservatives currently hold that could be vulnerable in an up coming election. If they lost all 16 of those seats they would need to pick up another 28 in order to hit a 1 seat majority (assuming the Speaker job switched from Peter Miliken, LPC, over to a CPC MP). As luck would have it I have been able to identify 28 seats that are ripe for the Conservatives to pick up from other parties. Of course they won't lose all 16 of those vulnerable seats, just like they won't pick up all of the 28 seats. But the math is there.

The following are the 28 seats that the Conservatives need to focus on:

Newfoundland and Labrador:

The Province of Newfoundland and Labrador was a wasteland for the Conservatives in the last election because of Danny Williams "ABC" (anybody but Conservatives) campaign. An interesting thing shows up when you look at the numbers from NL from the last election. Conservative supporters didn't vote for other parties. They just stayed home. So depending on what Danny does during the next election, there's potential for those Conservative voters to return to the polls. I can't imagine that citizens of this province want to continue having no voice at the government table. If they do come back out to vote there's 4 ridings that the Conservatives would be competitive in.

Labrador, Todd Russel, LPC: this is the longest shot of the 4

Random-Burin-St. George's, Judy Foote, LPC: despite the ABC campaign, Judy's vote total decreased in the last election.

St. John's East, Jack Harris, NDP: this riding was previously held by the CPC. The NDP picked up votes at the expense of both the LPC and CPC so I don't think the votes will stick.

St. John's South-Mount Pearl, Siobhan Coady, LPC: Both the LPC and NDP picked up votes at the expense of the CPC. If Conservative voters return home they should reclaim this seat.

Prince Edward Island:

Malpeque, Wayne Easter, LPC: Wayne has held this seat for a while but has been bleeding votes to the CPC. With less than 1000 votes now separating the CPC from Wayne, the right candidate for the CPC can eke out a win here.

Nova Scotia:

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodot, Bill Casey, IND: Bill Casey, a former CPC member, is retiring and this historically Conservative riding should return to the CPC without the popular incumbent.

New Brunswick:

Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Brian Murphy, LPC: Another riding where the LPC has been bleeding votes to the CPC. This riding is now within reach for the CPC.

Quebec:

While a majority will not be found in the Province of Quebec for the CPC, there are still a couple of seats in play.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Robert Bouchard, BQ: Despite the CPC nosedive in Quebec during the final days of the last election, this is one riding where the CPC actually picked up votes over their previous outing moving from 3rd behind the LPC to a very respectible 2nd.

Louis-Hébert, Pascal-Pierre Paillé, BQ: The CPC lost this riding to the BQ but still remained a respectable 2nd. They can retake this riding.

Ontario:

Without picking up a significant number of seats in Quebec, Ontario will be key to a Conservative majority. There's a lot of fruit ripe for the picking here.

Ajax-Pickering, Mark Holland, LPC: Mark has been a rather lack-luster performer for the LPC and has been bleeding enough votes to put this riding in jeopardy for him with the CPC as the most likely beneficiaries.

Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Gurbax Malhi, LPC: Another lack-luster LPC 3rd stringer who's been losing votes to the CPC.

Brampton-Springdale, Ruby Dhalla, LPC: Ruby barely won this seat in the last election and with the memories of nany-gate on their minds, the voters of her riding are unlikely to return her to Ottawa.

Brampton West, Andrew Kania, LPC: Andrew took this seat in the last election by just over 200 votes. The LPC lost 1000 votes here in the last election while the CPC picked up 7000. It doesn't look good for Andrew to repeat.

Don Valley West, Rob Oliphant, LPC: The LPC lost a lot of votes here with the CPC being the main beneficiary. This riding is in play for the CPC.

Eglinton-Lawrence, Joe Volpe, LPC: Joe's antics in the last LPC leadership race have made him look like quite the bufoon. He lost a lot of votes to the CPC in the last election.

Guelph, Frank Valeriote, LPC: Frank lost a lot of votes in the last election and it's not likely he'll get them back. A strong GOTV could bring this riding over to the CPC.

Mississauga-South, Paul Szabo, LPC: The CPC has placed a close 2nd in this riding for 2 elections in a row.

Sault Ste. Marie, Tony Martin, NDP: The CPC came on strong in this riding in the last election with the LPC falling off. A stronger LPC candidate would help split the left vote and allow the CPC to come up the middle.

Welland, Malcolm Allen, NDP: The LPC lost this riding to the NDP in the last election, with the CPC coming in 2nd by only 100 votes. A little more vote splitting can deliver this riding to the CPC.

York Centre, Ken Dryden, LPC: Ken has been losing ground to the CPC in this riding and I don't know if he has any more wins left in his glove.

Manitoba:

Elmwood-Transcona, Jim Maloway, NDP: The CPC has pretty good representation in Manitoba already and this is the only riding in play for them. The right candidate here could turn this riding Tory blue.

Saskatchewan:

The CPC already have most of this province and there's no low lying fruit left to pick.

Alberta:

Edmonton-Strathcona, Linda Duncan, NDP: Linda Duncan took this riding from Rahim Jaffer in the last election, barely. This riding could easily swing back to the CPC giving them another shut-out in Alberta.

British Columbia:

The CPC are already pretty strong in the suburbs around Vancouver and in the rural parts of the Province. There's a few swing riding in BC and even in Vancouver Proper that could easily tilt into the Conservative column.

Burnaby-Douglas, Bill Siksay, NDP: Bill barely won this riding in the last election. A stronger LPC candidate could allow for the right amount of vote splitting to deliver this riding to the CPC.

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Keith Martin, LPC: Keith originally won this riding as a Reform Party member. Keith joined the LPC in 2004 and won 3 elections under the LPC banner. However, Keith has been losing votes ever since and only won the last election by 68 votes. This riding should return to the right after the next election.

Newton-North Delta, Sukh Dhaliwal, LPC: Sukh has won this riding in the last two elections. However, this riding has historically been a PC, Reform, Alliance, CPC riding (this is the riding I grew up in). The Gurmant Grewal tape fiasco cost this riding for the CPC. However, the right candidate can take this historically conservative riding back from the LPC.

New Westminster-Coquitlam, Dawn Black, NDP: Dawn beat the CPC in this riding by less than 1500 votes in the last election. And with her retiring this riding is up for grabs by the CPC.

Vancouver South, Ujjal Dosanjh, LPC: Ujjal won this riding by a mere 20 votes over the CPC in the last election. This could easily be the riding that ends the Vancouver proper shut-out for the CPC.

The Territories:

With one seat each, there's not much up here. And with the sparse population, a vote differential of 500 here is like 2000 in an urban riding. Never the less there is one riding that the CPC can add to their Nunavut riding.

Western Arctic, Dennis Bevington, NDP: The Prime Minister's attention to arctic issues could easily be the difference in this riding electing a CPC MP.

#roft Today in the Wildrose Alliance leadership race

I've been home sick from work the last couple of days. And by being home during the day, I've answered my first phone call from the Mark Dyrholm campaign. I told the caller that I was supporting Danielle Smith for WRA leader. In response to this the caller went on to denigrade Danielle and tell me how she's a liberal and that because she's "pro-abortion" she won't follow through with her policy plank of de-listing abortion. I found this extremely funny because of this Facebook update of Mark's from 4 days ago.

Only a few days left. I know I am being attacked unwarrantedly, but I ask all of you to continue to keep professional. When the opposition calls you, please be polite and respectfully let them know you have made your choice. At the end we need to be united. If the other side can't operate in this manner, we still can. Let's continue to lead by example.

Pot meet kettle.

Also, it seems that many current Alberta PC MLAs are closely watching this race to see who comes out on top. Apparently, some of the more conservative members of the Alberta PCs are considering jumping ship for the Wildrose Alliance Party should Danielle Smith win the leadership.

This is good news for the WRA as it would place them into official opposition status right away. This is bad news for the Alberta Liberals because it will relegate them to wandering the wilderness of the HooDoos far into the future.

The thing that scares me about this is that now it opens the door to lefty supporters to join the WRA party to HELP get the more socially conservative Dyrholm elected. We saw something similar to this in the last PC leadership race when lefties and union members were joining the party to prevent Ted Morton from winning. Only this time, by supporting the more socially conservative candidate, it makes the WRA less electable to the Alberta population and somewhat helps to protect the Libs & Dips.

Despite the common misperception most Albertans are moderately conservative - just right of center if you will - and a far right social conservative like Mark Dyrholm is not electable as Premier. It is in the best interest of the Alberta Liberals and NDP for Mark Dyrholm to win. Their very survival depends on it.